NHL Trade Rumours- Matthew Ryder's Blog

Carolina Hurricanes: 2006 Stanley Cup Champions

2006-06-20T05:10:00.000-07:00

And that was all she wrote for the 2005-06 season of NHL hockey. The Carolina Hurricanes defeated the Edmonton Oilers in seven games to win Lord Stanley's cherished mug, and an entire country was left dejected for the second year in a row as their bandwagon club fell short after coming so far.

But how did it happen? Well I can't tell you for sure, I can only tell you what I saw as I watched the Stanley Cup Final. That's why I'm here today.

It's my opinion that, while it did not directly cost them the series, the loss of Dwayne Roloson indirectly cost Edmonton the Stanley Cup. The nerves of Ty Conklin late in Game 1 led to a fumbled puck, and a degree of unfamiliarity between the netminder and captain Jason Smith resulted in a loss that may not have been had Roloson not been hurt (or had fate seen Jussi Markkanen as the backup that night). I also think that the Game 2 loss was a result of being rocked by the loss of their all-world keeper, a carryover that showed up on the scoreboard. Thankfully for the Oilers, however, Markkanen didn't play like a goalie who deserved a 5-0 loss and there was suddenly a belief that the series was not out of reach.

Going back home down 2-0, anything less than two wins for Edmonton was a recipe to lose the Cup, regardless of the resilience the Oilers showed all playoffs. They split, losing a Game 4 in which they actually probably played better than they did in the Game 3 victory. Not good going back to the road for two of the next three (if they were lucky). Still, Markkanen looked very solid and the team was playing like they thought a series win was not out of the question, so you never could tell for sure.

The Oilers took Game 5 by playing a perfect road game - the game they really needed to play in Game 7. As he had so many times this spring, Fernando Pisani gave the team hope with a shorthanded overtime goal, and all the talk was about how the Oilers had momentum coming back home for Game 6. The 4-0 score of that sixth game, and the fact that Carolina looked completely lost, secured the belief that the momentum belonged to the Oilers, and for the first time in the Stanley Cup Final people were talking like the series was Edmonton's to lose.

Unfortunately, it was not to be, as Carolina took advantage of Edmonton's overly passive road approach in the deciding contest. The Oilers played like a club that was expecting the Hurricanes to come hard and try to stomp them into the ice, and that's what Carolina did. Edmonton looked exceptional in the third period, and I have no doubt that I'd be writing about what went wrong for Carolina today if the Oilers had punched sixty of those minutes last night instead of twenty, but here we are. By the time Edmonton got off their heels and started making smart dumps and playing with a physical edge, they were down by two goals with their best chances of the night behind already behind them. The Canes shut things down and began to choke off the neutral zone, completely nullifying the speed of the Oilers and showing that they could actually be defensively responsible when called upon to do so. Game, set, match. Your 2006 Stanley Cup Champions: the Carolina Hurricanes.

Take nothing away from those Hurricanes, however. They are a great team and they fully deserved to win the Cup this season. They were built to thrive in the new, skating-first NHL, and that's exactly what they did. They had a great forward core, a sound defense, and a wonder-kid goalie in Cam Ward whose Conn Smythe win might now make him the best young netminder in the league. So don't think for a minute that the Oilers lost this series - Carolina did a pretty good job of winning it, in my opinion. It was also good to see that it wasn't on Jussi Markkanen that Edmonton lost, because the Oilers deserved better after the way they played all spring and better was what they got. In fact, most believe Markkanen saved his NHL career with this performance, which is far better than hearing how he single-handedly lost the Stanley Cup.

In conclusion, I'd like to say that had Dwayne Roloson stayed healthy, I truly think this series would have been over in six games and it would have been in favor of Edmonton. I think having Conklin step in late in Game 1 secured a loss, and I think the Oilers were badly shaken in Game 2 because Roloson was toast for the series. By the time they pulled it together, it was too late. Carolina was opportunistic, got some breaks, and made the absolute most of what they had, and that's what champions do, so congratulations to them.

And to all my fellow Leaf fans out there who hopped on the Oilers bandwagon only to be crushed last night, I offer you this piece of wisdom: at least Ottawa didn't win.

No Post Friday Past...

2006-06-12T04:52:00.000-07:00

Sorry for not having a post up on Friday to those who have grown accustomed to reading. Saturday was the annual QMJHL Draft and there was an incredible amount of work involved in the selection process, as well as a lot of behind-the-scenes work that needed to be done.

Things will change slightly this week, as my next post will NOT definitely be on Friday, it will be the day after the Stanley Cup Final is over. If the Final ends Thursday, I'll post Friday, if it ends any other day the post will be on the following day. So be sure to check back the day after the Cup is handed out, as I plan on giving a brief overview as to why I feel the victorious club was indeed victorious.

Thanks for checking in.

The Stanley Cup Final

2006-06-01T07:01:00.000-07:00

We've reached the end of the road in the NHL postseason, and it's time for my final series prediction of the spring. Given the magnitude of the series, my prediction will be more in-depth than the previous rounds, so let's take a look at how the Western Conference Champion Edmonton Oilers match up against their counterparts from the East, the Carolina Hurricanes, in all the key areas, after which I'll make the big call on who will walk away with the Stanley Cup.

Stanley Cup Final
(2) Carolina Hurricanes vs. (8) Edmonton Oilers

Between the Pipes
After watching the Canes operate a carousel of netminding throughout the first three rounds, one would have to think that this time it's going to be all Cam Ward unless something goes horribly amiss. He's not only been better than Gerber, but he's been better than every other goalie he's faced to this point (except for maybe Ryan Miller, who was excellent). He might be young, but he's proven that he can play huge games and make them look like a cakewalk, and it's my own opinion that we could be seeing the emergence of one of the NHL's elite big-game goaltenders here in 2006.

Nearly two-hundred feet away will stand a man that has paid his dues at every level, and has piqued later in his career than most netminders. Dwayne Roloson has long been a great AHL goaltender, and was also a great NHL goaltender in his time with Minnesota. He is one of the strongest mental goalies the league has ever seen, and is the battler between the pipes that Edmonton has sorely needed since Curtis Joseph left. He's acrobatic, quick, and smart, and he didn't come all this way just to earn a contract extension. Roli wants the Cup.

So who's got the advantage? My money is on Edmonton here, as much as I like and respect Cam Ward. Roloson is tougher mentally and physically, and he is playing like a man possessed right now. Carolina is going to have to work to get pucks past the Oilers' stopper, and if the way the West was won is any indication, that work might be too much for any team of mere mortals right now.
Advantage: Edmonton Oilers

Defense
Carolina's back end is anchored by some solid hockey players with lots of experience. Mike Commodore, Bret Hedican, Aaron Ward, Niclas Wallin and Glen Wesley have all played in a Stanley Cup Final before, which means that five of the top six D for the Canes know what's coming. That said, nobody on that list is in the category of 'offensive dynamo', and their most offensive-minded defenseman is Frankie Kaberle, who is notorious for coughing up pucks in his own end and/or making generally bad decisions with the biscuit. Also, while the blueline in Carolina has experience, nobody on the list is a true horse that can be relied on every night to play big minutes and shut down the opposition himself. Defense by committee is fine by me, but I think I'd rather have one big-minute guy and a committee of five than have six guys who all look like they should be playing on any other team's second pairing.

The Oilers' blueline is shockingly similar to that of the Hurricanes, with one big exception. Chris Pronger. Pronger is playing better now than he did in his Hart Trophy season in 2000, logging huge minutes and absolutely dominating whoever he's matched up against. Along with Pronger, hockey's greatest warrior directs the Edmonton defense corps, that man being Jason Smith. They call him 'Gator' because of his unusually reptilian feet, but they could easily call him Gator because he's ornery and tough and likes to prey on people who come into his territory. Add to the mix guys like Jaroslav Spacek and the other great warrior, Steve Staios, as well as a solid third pairing in Matty Greene and M-A Bergeron, and the Oilers have a mix that could be the recipe for success.

As far as an advantage goes, I'll once again have to grant it to Edmonton. I like Pronger's presence, especially when he's out there with Smith, and the other two pairs are more talented than Carolina's bottom-four, even if they do lack the same experience. It's a closer call than goaltending is, but Edmonton has the advantage on the blueline.
Advantage: Edmonton Oilers

Forwards
Up front Carolina is quick and deep with the like of Staal, Stillman, Weight, Recchi, and Williams. There's also a great deal of defensive conscience there with the Adams boys and Selke trophy nominee Rod Brind'Amour, so both ends of the ice will be secure. The Canes can score a lot in a short period of time with all this talent, and given that the fourth line has yet to record a point between them in the postseason you might see a hero born via a timely marker. The only downside is that sometimes the forwards get too cute with the puck and end up paying the price for it, but that doesn't happen enough to be a major concern.

Edmonton's forwards are a real mix of what playoff hockey is all about. They're fast, mean, physical, and fairly skilled, and are committed to playing a full sixty minutes every night. They don't make many mistakes, they are the picture of keeping it simple, and they are absolutely lethal on faceoffs. They'll look to wear Carolina out with a hard-hitting forecheck and then get pucks to the net for deflections or jam plays, so Cam Ward can expect to get well-acquainted with the number 94, because it will be in his face for this entire series.

While it's hard to go against guys like Smyth and Horcoff, it's easier when you look at the host of talent on the Canes' roster. I don't think Carolina is faster, but they are definitely more skilled and probably better overall in the two-way sense. I know what to expect from both clubs up front, and I think it's a great matchup for Edmonton, but I also think that Carolina has the edge by a small margin.
Advantage: Carolina Hurricanes

Powerplay
Carolina's powerplay is not as good as the numbers suggest. They scored five powerplay goals on Jersey in the second round, which inflated their numbers grossly, and have since been more or less anemic on the powerplay. For my money, this is where the forwards' tendency to get too cute has hurt them, as they have fallen in the trap of "one too many passes" on more than one occasion in the postseason. With that said, there is more talent among the five guys the Hurricanes can ice than most teams have on a full roster, so don't let it shock you if they really get rocking out of nowhere in this series.

Edmonton is essentially the exact opposite of Carolina on the powerplay. They have been consistently pounding pucks on goal and maintaining extensive possession during most man advantages. They went on a run in which seven of eight games included an Oilers' PP goal, and are looking to carry that over to the Final. Much like other aspects of their game, they keep it simple with shots from Pronger, Bergeron, or Stoll and look for deflections and rebounds, which is basically what they'll continue to do until the Cup is decided.

To me, this is another close call, and as much as I like Edmonton's simplicity, it still scares me how quickly Carolina can explode with all that talent. It comes down to whether you favour consistency over explosiveness or vice versa, and for me I think I'm going to have to take explosiveness.
Advantage: Carolina Hurricanes

Penalty Killing
Carolina has very good penalty killing with Kevyn Adams, Rod Brind'Amour, and Justin Williams, and those defense-first blueliners they have add nothing but positives. They're good on faceoffs, they make fast, smart decisions with the puck, and they know how to grind it out. Cam Ward is back there for any lapses, which are not exactly frequent as it is.

The Oilers, however, are superhuman on the penalty kill. They will block shots with their faces if that's what it takes to kill a penalty, and on many occasions they have done exactly that. They do a good job of clearing lanes of vision for Roloson to see shots from the point, and every team that has faced Edmonton so far has had problems breaking down the Oilers' box because it is so mobile and so well-adjusted to every powerplay look they see. Led by Mike Peca and Shawn Horcoff, there is a real threat of shorthanded scoring chances because of the ability to read plays and adjust, which makes the Edmonton PK a tough nut to crack.

Long story short, Edmonton has a big advantage here. I have a lot of respect for Carolina's grinders and how they kill penalties, but the Oilers were born for this stuff and that gives them a sizeable advantage in this area of the game.
Advantage: Edmonton Oilers

Coaching
Carolina is a well-coached hockey club, especially for the type of talent they have and the way the NHL is operating nowadays. Peter Laviolette has his club firing on all cylinders, playing an up-tempo style that is filled with calculated risks and end to end action, and he's respected by people league-wide for his accomplishments this season. He's a player's coach, and shows emotion on the bench to match what his boys are feeling, which is nice to see. Expect him to have the Canes well prepared.

On the other bench, Craig MacTavish is doing exactly what Laviolette is, just with more of a defensive conscience. He preaches puck movement and speed, but also dump-ins and shot blocking - things that made him a great NHLer. The players love him and he's become a media darling for his tendency to say what he's thinking on anything and everything related to his hockey club. He runs his bench intelligently and knows what it takes to win the big one from his time as a player, so you can expect his boys to also be quite ready to go.

Despite the fact that some people may try and sell it that coaching doesn't make a difference when the stakes are this high, nothing could be further from the truth. The wrong matchup or a misread video during a session can lead to a total debacle, as can a coach who cannot properly motivate his players. So, although Peter Laviolette is a great coach (especially in this brave new world of wide open hockey) and may well win himself a Jack Adams award within the next month, I think the edge has to go to Craig MacTavish. He's been there before, he knows what it takes to win, and he's a smart coach. In a Stanley Cup Final, his words of wisdom aren't hollow nonsense or hot air, they're truth because he's done it before. He won't oversell his own experience to his players, and he won't make a show of them if they aren't adequately contributing, but he'll coach the way one needs to if they want their name on the Cup, and to me that's a major advantage.
Advantage: Edmonton Oilers

The Conn Smythe Winner
If it's Carolina that ends up with the Stanley Cup at the end of this series, it's a two horse race with a distant third man in the mix. As good as Eric Staal has been, I think he's going to come in second, and I think Cory Stillman is a guy with an outside shot due to his penchant for scoring big goals. However, to me, I don't see how you could vote against Rod Brind'Amour. He's been the heart and soul of the team, scoring big goals, winning big faceoffs, and making all the smart veteran plays that a captain should at this time of year. When the stakes are this high, a team needs a guy like Brind'Amour more than anything else, and he's deserving of the Conn Smythe should it end up in the hands of a Hurricane.

If the Cup goes to the Oilers, I think it's a similar situation as far as the race for the Smythe goes - a two horse race with a distant third. That distant third, to me, is Ryan Smyth, who has embodied playoff hockey during this run and has been a true leader for the Oil all the way. When the race tightens to those two horses, however, I think it will be Chris Pronger who edges out goalie Dwayne Roloson for the award. As fabulous as Roloson has been, Pronger is averaging over thirty minutes a game and is playing at a pace of nearly a point per game, which is incredible for a defenseman. He plays in all situations, and plays well, never getting ruffled despite being a major target of forecheckers and always making the smartest play that's available to him. I love what Roli has given the Oilers in these playoffs, but for me I like what Pronger has given them just a tiny bit more.
My Picks: Rod Brind'Amour (CAR)/Chris Pronger (EDM)

The 2006-07 Stanley Cup Champion
So with all of this considered, the only question that remains is who is to be this year's Stanley Cup Champion? This is it in a summary:

Carolina is a fast, skilled team that has solid goaltending and alright special teams. They aren't physical at all, but they are heady enough to stay out of trouble and will produce enough offensive opportunities to stay in any game they play, thanks to their all-out approach.

The Oilers are every bit as fast as the Hurricanes, they have a goaltending advantage, and better penalty-killing (the powerplay is pretty close, too). They'll keep it simple, and they will absolutely beat Carolina into the ice physically, while playing their own brand of intelligent, safe hockey.

To me, when these two teams meet, it's going to result in the Edmonton Oilers winning their first Stanley Cup since 1990. As good as Carolina are, Edmonton has been slaying Goliath all spring, simply a different incarnation every couple of weeks. I think Edmonton can hang with Carolina in every area that the Canes excel in, and I don't think the same is true in reverse. Edmonton can play a skating and skill game, but I'm not sold that Carolina can play a physically demanding, mucky style of game. I'm of the mind that we're fixing to see a real beauty of a series here, most likely a six- or seven-gamer, but if Edmonton had this clinched by the fifth game I would not be surprised in the least.
Prediction: Edmonton wins series 4-2

So that's it for my massive Stanley Cup blowout. It took me a long time to consider the major points of a series and weigh out who had the advantages where, but after all the consideration I'm confident in my assessment of how this one breaks down. To any who are wondering, the clock is now ticking on my last blog entry for a while, I'm looking at two more entries and then finishing up for the summer. So suck it in now while it's new, because once the Final is over I'm on summer vacation! Thanks for reading folks, I'll be back with fresh post next Friday.

Rebuilding the Toronto Maple Leafs

2006-05-23T12:23:00.000-07:00

I've stayed away from writing on the Leafs since coming on-board here at nhltraderumours.com, mostly because the idea appealed to me far less than jamming my shoeless foot into a highly active hornet's nest and seeing what would happen. Now, unlike most members of the media, who will not admit that they root for the Leafs despite the fact it is brazen in their coverage and the attention they give the Buds, I will openly state that the Toronto Maple Leafs are my favorite hockey club. They were my favorite team long before I got into this business, and they'll be my favorite long after I'm done.

With that considered, it should also be considered that I am not a jaded Leafs fan who's lost all faith. I'm wavering, but I don't think all is lost after one year without a playoff appearance. However I'm also not a dummy who thinks that we're only one step away from the Cup - I know there is work to be done...a lot of work. So this week I have decided to outline some of the key offseason targets Toronto should have in order to get the franchise back on track. I'm not saying that these will actually happen, I'm more giving my opinion on guys that should be given some serious thought. So below I've put together one full line of subtractions, and one full line of additions, as well as what my perfect Leaf line combos would look like at the start of 2006-07.

Subtractions in Leaf Land
Ed Belfour, G - I don't know if it's official or not that 'The Eagle' is toast in TO, but he sure should be after the season he posted. Given his awful record against the Sens alone, he single-handedly put the Leafs out of the playoffs. Instead of being the guy to get them through as he's been in the past, he was the weakest link on a pretty rusty chain. The phrase 'over the hill' jumps to mind, so he may as well be over someone else's hill as be over the Leafs' hill.

Alex Khavanov, D - There has been no word on his status with Toronto, but the fragile Russian defender has got to go. He was being paid $1.25m this season, and spent most of the year fighting off injuries more proned to happen to teenage female gymnasts than NHL defensemen. He was a 'JFJ-loves-the-St. Louis-organization' acquisition, but the thing Fergie forgot was that the worst team in the league didn't want Khavanov because he was frail and couldn't handle big minutes. For $600K it would've been a decent signing, but it flat out wasn't for the money actually paid. Pack your bags Khav, best of luck latching on in the Russian Superleague.

Wade Belak, D - As much as any Leaf fan out there, I'll always have a soft spot for Wade. He was one of the most hilarious goons hockey has ever seen, but he has no place in the NHL anymore. He's slow, he has no hockey smarts, and owns no offensive or defensive game to speak of, and it's time to let him fly the coop.

Nik Antropov, F - He's an RFA, and he is one of the biggest busts in the history of the NHL. He's always hurt, and when he does play he's an absolutely atrocious excuse for a hockey player, lacking speed, skill, and general flair to his game. He's an okay defensive forward, but would benefit greatly from an improved skating stride, which will never happen, so the Leafs might as well cut him loose now while they can do it without hassle.

Tie Domi, F - Tie Domi is the absolute worst player in the NHL. I actually mean that. When you consider everything about his game, he is the worst player in the league. He's a fighter that doesn't fight, a hitter that can't hit, and he thinks he's Mario Lemieux despite the fact he couldn't put a puck in the ocean if he was standing on the wharf. He's washed up, and he's being paid a healthy chunk of money to be washed up in Toronto. I say JFJ tells him he's going to be bought out, but he has the option of "retiring" as a Leaf via a press conference, then the buyout can happen behind the scenes so he's not embarrassed. That way Tie gets to retire as a Leaf, Toronto rids themselves of deadweight, and no one comes out looking like a loser. Or just buy him out outright, I don't care. He sucks anyway.

Jason Allison, F - This is a done deal, but I put it in here anyway. Allison had a good year for the Leafs, regardless of what people say. He can still maintain a high level of play, which he proved this year, and he seems to have bumped the injury bug for the most part. That said, his defensive deficiencies are obvious, and he might actually lose a race to that dog-goalie in the Home Depot commercials, so it might be best to leave him for another team to take a stab at (I could see him in Atlanta when Savard goes, personally).

Additions in Leaf Land
Martin Gerber, G, CAR - It's a known fact that JFJ is high on Gerber, in fact it was Ferguson who was the final bidder to be beat out by Carolina in the Gerber sweepstakes before this season. After a shaky playoff, Gerber's stock has gone down and he will come much cheaper than he would have before the 2006 postseason. It should be kept in mind however, that Gerber had a flu for the entire week leading up to the series against Montreal that caused him to lose over ten pounds, and he's looked solid in his relief appearances of Cam Ward since the first round. He was also lights-out in the Olympics, and I think Toronto has to be the team to land this guy if they want to improve next season.

Ruslan Salei, D, ANA - This guy is a hidden gem in the NHL. He's a down-and-dirty defenseman who can mix and muck with the best of them, and makes a good first pass. He hits as hard as any defender out there, and is a very good positional player as well. For money in the range of $1.5m a season, this guy would be a major player for Toronto in the #4 slot on the defensive depth chart.

Danny Markov, D, NSH - One of the worst things Pat Quinn ever did was ship off Danny Markov. He's an absolute warrior who will give his life, body, and soul to the team he's playing for. He's a great shot blocker, and has a defensive conscience that few players in the NHL possess. Another good hitter, he's a gifted skater as well and is another guy who makes a good first pass. I think the Leafs would be out of their collective minds to let this guy go anywhere but the ACC to start 2006-07, but I guess it also depends on whether or not he fancies a return to TO.

Dan Hinote, F, COL - Another UFA who would bring a sandpaper element to Toronto, Hinote is a great character player to have on a team. He's a great skater, a great penalty-killer, and would replace Tie Domi with someone who could actually play hockey. I think Dan Hinote would be a prime candidate to jump into the lineup and play a solid role as a grinder, which would likely justify moving Darcy Tucker up to play on the second line. He'll come cheap, and he's the type of guy that wins you a championship, so get him inked up.

Derek Armstrong, F, LA - Armstrong is a good centreman that gets overlooked by a lot of people in hockey. He had a breakout year in 2005-06, posting 41 points in 62 games, and he has a defensive conscience up front as well. He's a bit of a grinder, but he's actually solid with the puck and skates better than he's credited for. As nice as it would be to see Toronto get Marc Savard to play on the second line, I think if cost efficiency is what you're seeking Armstrong is a poor man's Savard who can make a few things happen with the right linemates.

Patrik Elias, F, NJ - I'm fully aware that Elias would not come cheap, but Toronto needs to go big or go home during the summer. There are some solid hockey players out there, all in the primes of their careers, and if it's big money they want it's going to have to be big money you spend. As much as people think overpaying for free agents is the end of the world, the reality is that it is not, because if you don't pay it someone else will. Elias is the winger Mats Sundin desperately needs, and if you brought him on board I think it would make that top line a legitimately scary thing to behold for opposing teams. However he'll be the most sought-after winger in the market this summer, so Toronto could have some competition if they target him.

I should also note that I feel it is paramount for the Leafs to re-sign Bryan McCabe, and it's also worth their while to keep Eric Lindros under contract for another year. Both made major contributions (Lindros when healthy) to what success Toronto had this season, and to let them go would be foolish. For my 2006-07 Leafs lines, both are assumed to be under contract for next season, as are all Group II free agents (except Antropov).

Your 2006-07 Toronto Maple Leafs
(LW-C-RW)
Scoring Line
26 Elias - 13 Sundin - 19 Williams
Two-way Line
16 Tucker - 7 Armstrong - 10 Steen
Checking Line
18 Kilger - 88 Lindros - 23 Ponikarovsky
Energy Line
17 Hinote - 14 Stajan - 92 O'Neill

Defense
15 Kaberle - 55 Markov
24 McCabe - 25 Salei
22 Richardson - 37 White

Goal
29 Gerber
30 Aubin
32 Tellqvist

So that's it for me this week. I've said everything I need to about how I would try to put together the Leafs come the fall. In closing, I think Jeremy Williams is NHL-ready, but only if he's used as a major offensive contributor, which is why he's on the top line. Ian White is also a lock to play in the show next year, and he looked good with Luke Richardson (who I think Toronto should and will re-sign), so why break up a good thing?

I'm sure there's lots to be said about this, so don't be shy. I'll be checking this a fair bit this week because I'm interested to see what people think. For now, however, I'll be back again with my Stanley Cup pick next week. Thanks for reading.

The Conference Finals

2006-05-16T04:27:00.000-07:00

With the Conference Finals on tap to start this weekend, I've gone ahead and picked the two teams that I believe will be facing one another for the Stanley Cup. My record was a dismal 1-3 in round two, mostly due to the collapse of the Sens and the explosion of the Edmonton Oilers (which are good problems to have, frankly). That puts my overall playoff prediction record at 5-7, so I suppose time will tell how these predictions turn out.

Eastern Conference Final

(2) Carolina Hurricanes vs. (4) Buffalo Sabres
For the true hockey fan, this series is the one they wanted to see in the East. The two most balanced, talented teams in the conference, both with a great mix of youth, speed, skill, and goaltending, and now they'll meet for the right to contest the best in the West for Lord Stanley's cherished mug.

Carolina has proven to be for real, particularly upon the insertion of Cam Ward in the starter's role between the pipes. They're getting scoring leadership from youth in guys like Eric Staal and Justin Williams, and playoff leadership from the veterans like Cory Stillman and ironman Rod Brind'Amour, and are looking more like a championship team with every period on the ice. The defense has been incredibly solid, particularly considering that it was their Achilles' Heel for much of the year, led by cult hero Mike Commodore, who is quickly becoming a playoff stalwart for the ages.

Their opponents, hailing from Buffalo, are the biggest surprise that should no longer be a surprise in the history of the NHL. They are very fast and have better balance than any team left in the playoffs. Their checkers double as scorers, their scorers double as checkers, and their defense is the definition of "by-committee," as Jay McKee is the biggest name back there. They, too, are riding a young goaltender in Ryan Miller, who has shown poise and composure well beyond his years, and seem to be quite prepared to shock the world and hoist the Stanley Cup.

The winner of this series is almost impossible to determine, but in my own mind it boils down to who stops scoring first. Balance is the name of the game for both teams, but one team is going to prove more balanced than the other, and it will be Buffalo for my money. They have four lines that can score, but none of those lines neglect their own end, and they seem to know how to shut down big scorers (see: Ottawa Senators, May 2006). Also consider that Ryan Miller seems to be a bit further ahead of Cam Ward between the pipes, and I have to figure the Sabres will be back in the Final for the first time since 1999.
Prediction: Buffalo wins series 4-2

Western Conference Final

(6) Anaheim Mighty Ducks vs. (8) Edmonton Oilers
I suspect that this series will be the reason that workplaces across the Eastern timezone will see a horrible drop in productivity over the next two weeks or so. Two tough, fast teams that are young and hungry, and have fought their way through to the Conference Final, now fixing to provide some of the most entertaining hockey of the playoffs.

The Ducks have been laying in wait, watching as the surprising Oilers beat the Sharks to pieces. They first beat the imposing Flames, then absolutely shelled the pathetic Avs, and are now looking to add a second notch to their belt of elminated teams from Alberta. They have proven to be gritty and speedy, and have been getting goaltending that far surpasses anything that other teams have gotten in this postseason. Their defense has been out of this world, and their young forwards are playing like guys who have been in the league for ten years - particularly the combination of Joffrey Lupul and Dustin Penner, who have been incredible for the Ducks so far. They'll look to beat the Oilers into submission with a hard forecheck, responsible defense, and balance that will see goals come from everywhere.

As for the Oilers, they are coming off of a series that was very physically demanding...for their opponents. Edmonton has carved out a niche of doing all the small things perfectly, and then letting the bigger things like goals and saves come how they will. They have leadership coming out of their ears, with guys like Ryan Smyth, Chris Pronger, Jason Smith, Steve Staios, and Mike Peca all playing the huge roles a young team needs from veterans come playoff time. They've had excellent special teams, and Dwayne Roloson is playing the best hockey of his career, so Edmonton has no intention of going home after coming this far.

For me, this will be the best series of the playoffs. As they say when the Yankees and Red Sox meet in an ALCS, "this is the real World Series". This series is the real Stanley Cup Final. It will be as fast as Buffalo/Carolina, with much better defense and far more physicality. Unforunately, whoever comes out of this one might not have enough left to overcome the East champions, but they'll have to burn that bridge when they get there. As with the East, it's almost impossible to pick a winner here, as the two teams are carbon-copies of each other, but I'll give the edge to Edmonton because they should steal one early on the road due to the Ducks' long layoff, and it's not going to be easy for Anaheim to go steal one back in Oil Country.
Prediction: Edmonton wins series 4-3

Thanks for reading, I'll be back again in a week's time.

An Open Letter to Dominik Hasek

2006-05-12T04:17:00.000-07:00

Dear "Dom",

I think I speak for everyone when I say that I'm tired of your over-the-top, attention-seeking foolishness. For years now, you have been playing the greatest game in the world and being paid handsomely to do so, but it has never proven to be enough. Aside from the potential to win the greatest trophy in sport every year (and successfully achieving the goal in 2002), and the millions of dollars you're paid to play, you demand to be the focal point of your club at all times - be it for the right or wrong reasons.

Everyone - Ottawa fans or otherwise - is tired of the "will-he-play?" chess game going on regarding your career, first in 2002 when you 'retired' (or bailed on Detroit, depending how one views it), and now in 2006 with your latest fluke injury. It's to the point where people don't even know what it is that you've "injured" - is it the adductor or the abductor? I think it's a muscle you found on WebMD and thought you could milk for an injury, but I guess I'm not a doctor...not that it particularly matters, as you seem to know more than doctors or coaches or anyone else about what pain tolerance truly is.

The fact of the matter is that you were one of the best goalies of all time. I hate to admit it, but you were. However in that same breath, you are the worst teammate of all time. You're a spotlight-hogging, selfish, groin-pulling geezer, and it's time for you to stop your crap. Either go play a game and make a difference, or stay away from the team and let Ray Emery do his job. Emery is the future of this franchise, he's doing the best job anyone could ask of him given his circumstances, and should the Ottawa Senators ever win a Stanley Cup it will be with him between the pipes - long after the name Hasek has left the back of a Sens jersey.

Apparently you were the guy to put Ottawa over the top and hand them the Stanley Cup, but in actuality it looks more and more like you're the guy who's going to cost John Muckler his job - again, not that I care, as I hate John Muckler too, but it's a nice way to treat your greatest friend and ally in the organization (probably the league). And make no mistake, you have few allies in the NHL - the only positives to come about you at this point are from real teammates who are actually good and tow the company line by saying the right things to the media at all times. When it comes to 'mates that were alienated in the past, comments focus strictly on on-ice performance and ability, which screams out that you are locker room cancer.

In concluding my letter to you, Dom, I would like to say that when Bryan Murray served you dinner by saying 'get off the ice, practice is for the goalies who might actually play', he made an friend for life right here. You are the most self-absorbed, sorry excuse for a hockey player I have ever seen in my life, and when I think that guys like Bobby Baun scored Stanley Cup winning goals on broken legs for the salary a part-timer hauls down at Subway in 2006, and you can't play because your fake muscle won't let you, I actually get physically ill.

Sincerely,

Matthew Ryder

PS: I hope you don't get a contract at the end of this season, and retirement finds you diving for tourist pennies in a Micronesian swamp.

The Second Round

2006-05-05T03:26:00.000-07:00

With round two of the NHL Playoffs on tap to start tonight, I've decided to make my predictions of who'll be getting out alive, why they'll be doing so, and how many games it's going to take. I was 4-4 in round one, and I called two of the series right to the number of games (Carolina and San Jose), so let's see if I can improve that record a bit the second time around.

Eastern Conference

(1) Ottawa Senators vs. (4) Buffalo Sabres

For those who are in love with the New NHL, this series should stand to be a dream come true. Two fast, skilled teams who can put goals up in a hurry collide for a berth in the conference finals.

Buffalo suprised myself and many others with their thorough dismantling of Philadelphia. They showed to be very solid up and down their lineup, and did not have any visible flaws aside from problems with Peter Forsberg. Ottawa really did not surprise anyone however, as their mix of blistering speed, unmatched depth, and blueline talent made a mockery of the defending champs.

So who takes it when these two battle? Ottawa, plain and simple. They have the edge everywhere, with the possible exception of goal, where a Dominik Hasek controversy is quietly brewing and Ray Emery (while being very talented) is not yet at the same level as Ryan Miller.

People may argue that the Sabres can match Ottawa's scoring, but the fact is that they cannot, and even if they could they would still have to defend against the Sens' attack, which, again, they cannot. On the other side of the ice, Ottawa can easily defend against the Sabres' scoring, as they have talented, mobile defensemen up the wazoo - a major reason Philly didn't come out on top against Buffalo in round one.

Expect an entertaining series overall, and one that could stand as one of the better-coached playoff matchups in a while, but also expect Ottawa to beat down Buffalo and march on to the Eastern Conference Finals.

Prediction: Ottawa wins series 4-1

(2) Carolina Hurricanes vs. (3) New Jersey Devils

This series should provide people with an interesting matchup to say the least. The skilled Hurricanes, with rookie playoff sensation Cam Ward between the wickets, against the longtime beasts of the East from New Jersey, with playoff Superman Martin Brodeur protecting the mesh. That edge probably goes to the Devils, but the rest of the matchup is harder to decide.

Carolina has more balance in their lines, that point is inarguable. However New Jersey holds the cards when it comes to having the better single line, as Elias-Gomez-Gionta is one of the best lines in hockey right now. Both sides have veteran talent and young guns up front, and both have defense corps that are rich in playoff experience, making the backend a wash.

What it comes down to is whether or not the high-flying Canes can have enough defensive sensibility to hold off the EGG line and pick their spots offensively - not to mention the question of whether or not the unproven talents such as Ward and Eric Staal will hold up in the second round against a much stronger opponent.

Given the struggles Carolina had in round one, and the lack of defensive effort everyone outside of Rod Brind'Amour showed, I don't see them making it out of the conference semis. Throw in the Devils' current unbeaten streak and the fact that playoff success is old hat for Jersey, and it quickly becomes their series to lose.

Prediction: New Jersey wins series 4-2

Western Conference

(5) San Jose Sharks vs. (8) Edmonton Oilers

The Sharks are a better team than a five-seed, and would have been higher if not for their dismal start. Edmonton is also of a higher quality than their seed, so the series should provide a real barn burner.

After ousting Detroit, the Oilers proved that they can beat anyone. They played much smarter hockey than they had in recent seasons, and abondoned the approach of firewagon offense for a more playoff-style gameplan. To cement the fact, the charge was led by goaltending and defense - something that could rarely be said in the land of the Oil in past years. Dwayne Roloson is as hot as any player in the NHL right now, and Chris Pronger is showing that he is still a big game defenseman with solid efforts on a nightly basis. Considering that, while it hasn't been at the forefront, scoring hasn't been a problem for guys like Fernando Pisani and Ales Hemsky, the Oilers should be ready to cook up some Shark meat.

However San Jose has a different plan. While they aren't as offensively diverse as Detroit, they have the best one-two combo in the NHL this season with Joe Thornton and Jonathan Cheechoo, and their second-line centre (and captain) Patrick Marleau netted seven goals in the Sharks' first five playoff games this year. They have a very good and very underrated defense, and one of the best goalies no ones knows about in Vesa Toskala, plus they are absolutely white-hot coming into the series. They can do it all, and as far as playoffs go, I'd venture that they are a more well-rounded and consistent roster than Detroit was when one considers all aspects of the game.

As much as Canadians want it to happen, and as primed as the Oilers are to pull off another big upset and become this year's Cinderella story, I don't see it happening. The Sharks are a remarkable hockey club and they're built to go deep in the postseason, something that they will accomplish at Edmonton's expense.

Prediction: San Jose wins series 4-3

(6) Anaheim Mighty Ducks vs. (7) Colorado Avalanche

This series is going to be the battle of opposing first round paths. Colorado had an easy time of it with Dallas, while Anaheim fought hard to oust the Flames in seven games, and now the two meet in the conference semis.

To begin, Colorado only won so much as Dallas lost in the first round. The Stars dropped the ball bigtime, as Dave Tippett couldn't alter his team's strategy enough to combat the Avs, and Marty Turco struggled to the point that his name has become serious trade bait since. Colorado's D wasn't particularly solid, and Jose Theodore looked atrocious, but their forwards took advantage of Turco's troubles and the end result was a solid victory.

Anaheim, on the other hand, managed to defeat a Flames' team that came to play and were favoured by almost everyone in hockey. Their defense looked exceptional, particularly the pairing of Niedermayer and Beauchemin, their forwards got better with every game, and they have two goalies who are number-one calibre and ready to go at a moment's notice. Anaheim outright beat their first round opponent, which is a claim Colorado cannot make so boldly.

Therefore, conventional wisdom says the Ducks down the Avalanche, and while conventional wisdom has been shot down repeatedly so far this postseason, this time it will hold up.

Prediction: Anaheim wins series 4-2

That's it for me this week. The post was late due to some formatting troubles on my end, so I apologize to those who like to sneak in a read during working hours (at least out East). Thanks for reading, I'll be back next Friday.

It's a Tough Job, but Somebody's Gotta Do It

2006-04-28T08:18:00.000-07:00

Recently the NHL has seen two of it's major Canadian markets fire head coaches after seasons gone awry. Pat Quinn and Marc Crawford were shown the door in Toronto and Vancouver respectively, despite both making the postseason in every full season they coached for the teams that let them go. This fact lends itself to the reality that work in the NHL is everyone's dream, but it's not an easy job, and it is by no means secure - regardless of whether or not it should be. Allow me to explain.

For as long as I have been covering hockey, I have been beating the drum that firing the coach is not the answer for a team's woes in 99% of situations. It's just the easiest answer to a question that has plagued GMs since the dawn of time - what's wrong with my team? GMs, like everyone else in the world, are human, and when they see that the team they put together is failing, they would much rather put the blame on a scapegoat than accept it for themselves. So it's then decided that it's not the assembly of players gathered by the GM who have faltered, but rather the way those players were coached, and guys like Quinn and Crawford get the axe.

So in these two cases, I'll continue to beat the drum that it was not the right move to fire the coach for either Toronto or Vancouver. Quinn sits second all-time among Leafs' coaches in wins, made the playoffs every year since he arrived, got out of the first round in every one of those years, and finished comfortably above .500 in each of his seven seasons in Toronto. As far as Crawford is concerned, the man has a Stanley Cup ring, also made the playoffs every season he coached in Vancouver (except for 1999, when he was brought in at the halfway point), also finished above .500 every season he spent in Vancouver, and was liked by most of his players and respected by them all. However these credentials were not enough to keep these two veteran, potential Hall of Fame coaches in a job, which boils down to the same common denominator - a young, inexperienced general manager running the show.

Toronto's John Ferguson Jr. was a longtime Quinn detractor behind closed doors, and the two never saw eye-to-eye. He made atrocious offseason acquisitions, constructing a roster so poor that most felt the team was an obvious longshot to make the playoffs. Yet even when Pat Quinn got them to within two points of a playoff spot, he was fired anyway due to a lack of experience and managerial intelligence on Ferguson's behalf. You don't just up and fire Pat Quinn, especially not to replace him with Paul Maurice, which is a lesson JFJ may be in the process of learning the hard way.

In Vancouver, Dave Nonis did an okay job until the trade deadline. Everyone thought he was pushing his team up the Western Conference ladder by acquiring Eric Weinrich, Keith Carney, Sean Brown, and Mika Noronen, but he wasn't. He was giving away nothing to get nothing. Weinrich was a bust, coming to BC still in a St. Louis state of mind, where losing was the norm and you didn't play to win. Carney was another bust, as he bumbled and fumbled around the ice with a look of utter bewilderment for how quickly the game was moving. Sean Brown played like Sean Brown, and you need look no further than his -14 rating in the 35 games he played before going to Vancouver to get an idea of what that meant. Noronen saw very little ice, and didn't look great, but he was a major upgrade from Maxime Ouellet in the backup role. And when these acquisitions flopped and the team went in the tank, whose fault was it? Why, not Dave Nonis', he's a cap wizard! It had to be Marc Crawford's coaching! Well no, it really wasn't. The Canucks would have been fine with the roster they had, and I'd venture it would be them playing Detroit, Dallas, or Calgary now had Nonis not made so many foolish moves at the deadline.

My point in all of this is that two exceptional NHL coaches lost their jobs recently because two inexperienced GMs made stupid decisions. For all the talk of how failure will not be tolerated and the Leafs and Canucks need to go in a new direction, it makes one wonder why such strict guidelines aren't followed when assessing general managers. I guess that's the way it goes for upper management in the NHL. It's a tough job, but somebody's gotta do it.

The Playoff Shakedown

2006-04-20T06:58:00.000-07:00

With the NHL playoffs beginning tonight, it's that time of year for everyone who has devoted themselves to the league this season to make their predictions for who will do what now that the actions matter. Given that I consider myself to be one of these devoted onlookers, I am going to do the same. Below are my predictions for every first-round matchup, with a brief explanation as to why I feel the way I do.

Eastern Conference

(1) Ottawa Senators vs. (8) Tampa Bay Lightning
This is a cakewalk for the Sens, to the point that it won't even be fun to watch. They are a faster team that is vastly more skilled, and even with Ray Emery starting they have an astronomical goaltending advantage over the Bolts.

Tampa's defense corps is a joke in comparison to the six blueliners that the Sens ice on a nightly basis, and with all the skilled forwards both teams bolster, that discrepancy will be exposed further when Ottawa is shutting down guys like St. Louis and Lecavalier while Spezza and Heatley are dominating.

Expect Ottawa to blow out the defending champs in the two games at home, then stomp them pretty good when the series shifts back to Tampa Bay.
Prediction: Ottawa wins series 4-0

(2) Carolina Hurricanes vs. (7) Montreal Canadiens
While many believe this was the matchup the Habs wanted, I'm inclined to believe that's being said only because people in Canada see a lot more Montreal games than they do Carolina games. Carolina is far too fast for Montreal's D, and guys like Staal and Stillman are going to have the time of their lives making lumbering dinosaurs like Sheldon Souray and Mike Komisarek look bad. Don't think so? Watch the TSN Top Ten Goals of 2006 and tell me how many times Souray made an appearance being victimized by a speedy sniper.

Marty Gerber will be there for Carolina when he's called upon, as he has been all year, and while I expect nothing less from Cristobal Huet (who, make no mistake, will be starting), I expect he'll be called upon far more often than Gerber. The Habs will be game, and they'll go down fighting, but they will unquestionably go down.
Prediction: Carolina wins series 4-2

(3) New Jersey Devils vs. (6) New York Rangers
This is going to be an interesting series, especially given the race that these two teams (as well as Philadelphia) were in for playoff seeding.

On the one hand you have the hottest team in the conference, New Jersey, going into the postseason with home-ice advantage and the best playoff goalie of this generation standing between the pipes. Across the ice you have the Rangers, playoff virgins in the new millennium, led by one of the most notoriously fickle superstars who has ever played the game.

Many still prognosticate on the state of the rules during the playoffs, as this is the first time people will have seen the obstruction-free NHL in the postseason. If the rules stay the same, the general feeling is that New York wins this series. If they don't, the Devils burn their rivals from across the river. However most who suggest this are ignorant to the fact that this is not New Jersey from ten years ago, and that they may actually have better overall team speed than the Rangers. Add to the mix that they will be the more physical of the two teams, and you have to like their chances.

They say teams can't be "built for the playoffs" in the New NHL, and that may be true. But teams very much can be built for the regular season, and that's the case with the Rangers. When the going gets tough, expect the bulk of the Czech Mates to get going...right out the door.
Prediction: New Jersey wins series 4-2

(4) Buffalo Sabres vs. (5) Philadelphia Flyers
This was not the matchup that the Sabres wanted. They fought hard to end up as the four-seed, and had a very good season, but when a team as physically imposing as the Flyers comes knocking on your door, you don't feel so good about your home-ice advantage.

Philly is a team that can play any style of game, but they can do it mean. If you want to try and skate all over them, they have guys who can skate. You want to try and grind out a win, they'll grind you to dust. You want to sit around and play a patience game, Ken Hitchcock invented it.

The same cannot be said for Buffalo. They have one speed - high - and one style of game - fast. If you clog them up or get physical, they get in deep trouble. While Ryan Miller and Marty Biron have been saviors all season long, neither one is proven in the postseason, and that hurts a team's chances as well.

While they should be commended on a great, very surprising year, all the Sabres' talk of the Leafs' golfing plans is going to look pretty foolish by the time this series is over...even moreso when those same Sabres are asking the Leafs if they can go ahead and play through in about two weeks time.
Prediction: Philadelphia wins series 4-3

Western Conference

(1) Detroit Red Wings vs. (8) Edmonton Oilers
Edmonton is always a tough team to play in the postseason, but the problem is the same every year - they're playing playoff hockey from December onwards, and by the time they actually make the playoffs they have nothing left. The story is no different in 2006.

The Oilers could have won their division or they could have finished out of the playoffs up until the final week of the season, and playing with such pressure is hard on a club. It's nice to say that resting a half dozen regulars for one night changes things, but it really doesn't, particularly when you draw Detroit in the first round.

The Wings are a team that is fast and tough, and have solid goaltending (even if people don't want to admit that Manny Legace is one of the best in the game). They play well at home and play well on the road, and have the perfect mix of youth and veterans. They've been there before, and they know what it takes to win, not to mention they are one of the best-coached clubs in the NHL. Things won't be easy for Detroit, and putting Edmonton out will probably cost them a deep playoff run for the grind it will be, but they'll get out of the first round nonetheless.
Prediction: Detroit wins series 4-3

(2) Dallas Stars vs. (7) Colorado Avalanche
People think this series is closer than it is because the Avs have been so good for so long. However this is not 2001, and things have changed.

Colorado will rely on an aging Joe Sakic, an absolutely ancient Rob Blake (and he looks the part on the ice, too), and a shaky Jose Theodore to get them to the promised land. Milan Hejduk has disappeared, Marek Svatos is hurt, and Alex Tanguay is not a man to do it himself.

Dallas, however, will rely on a rejuvenated Mike Modano, one of hockey's quietest superstars in Sergei Zubov, and a Marty Turco who is playing the best hockey of his life. Jason Arnott is having a career year, Jussi Jokinen is one of the best two-way rookies going right now, and Jere Lehtinen is backing up Modano as a serious scoring threat.

Game, set, and match, Dallas. And it's a walk.
Prediction: Dallas wins series 4-1.

(3) Calgary Flames vs. (6) Anaheim Mighty Ducks
People really don't like the Flames this year because they don't score enough. The thing that those people aren't paying nearly enough attention to, however, is the fact that a) they still score a lot more than they give up and b) it's not like they were an offensive dynamo in 2004 (which may inevitably be why we are calling Tampa Bay the defending champions, but that's not the point). That team put out a Brian Burke team when they bumped the Canucks, and they'll do it again here.

Anaheim is a feisty club, and they'll come hard. They have a solid group of forwards, the best defenseman in the game today, and a goalie who has carried a team to the finals before. However inexperience will hurt them as they'll be looking for big contributions from guys who have never been there before in Andy McDonald, Corey Perry, Joffrey Lupul, Ryan Getzlaf, and Francois Beauchemin. I'm not sold on the sandpaper element of their club either, which is an element the Flames' have in spades, and it's an element that wins playoff games.

Oh, and then there's Miikka Kiprusoff, who is the best goalie in the world today, and he ain't in the Ducks' net. Toodles for Coach Bombay and his boys.
Prediction: Calgary wins series 4-2

(4) Nashville Predators vs. (5) San Jose Sharks
There is no way you can discount the sheer heat coming off the Sharks right now. Not since the Jaws film series have we seen so many sharks bursting into flames, and I think that will be the downfall of the Preds.

Which is a point that needs clarification - the downfall of the Preds will not be Chris Mason. He is an alright goalie who won't steal a series by any means, but he'll make the saves when they need him to. His .912 save percentage is a solid number, particularly among the plethora of inexperienced netminders in the postseason, and I truly believe that it won't be his fault when Nashville gets roasted by San Jose.

That said, expect Thornton to dominate not only because he's an amazing talent, but also because Mike O'Connell is out there watching somewhere, and the "Joe has no heart" rumours of 2004 aren't that far back in the big centre's memory. Add the incredible mix of size and speed San Jose possesses both up front and on the back end, and then put them on the ice attacking the smaller Predators, and the lights will be out in the Music City before too long.
Prediction: San Jose wins series 4-1

Those are my opinions on the first-round matchups in the NHL playoffs. I'll be doing this for the beginning of each round along the way, and with exams now behind me I'll be back on track for my regular blog until the season is over. Thanks for the exam well-wishes to those who sent them, and thanks for reading.

Despite my best efforts...

2006-04-14T08:53:00.000-07:00

I have been completely grounded by final exams. Therefore there will be no post this week, but there is a good possibility that I'll be able to do something for next week.

To those who have become accustomed to reading my blog, this week's blog is the only one in question, and I fully expect to have something cooking by late next week, very likely for my self-imposed Friday deadline. Thanks to all my readers for continuing to check back, there'll be something here for you to read next Friday.

Before I head back to the books however, I would like to extend a huge congratulations to Darryl Young and his Tyke red Champion Towne Chevrolet Corvettes, who recently came out on top in their playoff series against a game Towne Chevrolet Malibus squad, clinching the title with a 7-5 victory. Tight playoff victories is what hockey is all about, and the Corvettes proved that they had what it takes, so congratulations once again.

I'll be back next Friday, but now it's off to "get my learn on," as they say.

Mad Mike and the Terror on Long Island

2006-04-07T06:43:00.000-07:00

For a long time Mike Milbury has been the GM of the New York Islanders. However it was only recently that he decided to step down, despite one of the worst track records of any executive in the history of professional sports. Now, as Milbury waits for his successor to be officially named, one must take a look back on his time to see how not to run a franchise.

Go all the way back to 1995, to begin. A disgruntled Bryan Berard openly states that he would never play a game for the Ottawa Senators, who took him in the first round. Milbury steps in with an offer of Wade Redden for Berard, and both sides walk away happy. However now, ten-plus years later, Redden is an all-star, an Olympian, and probably the biggest fish in the free agent market this summer, while Berard is a steroid-riddled minus-30 on one of the worst teams in hockey.

Five years down the road, in 2000, Milbury made another collosal blunder. He dealt promising young netminder Roberto Luongo, as well as another kid...what was his name...oh, yes, Olli Jokinen, to the Florida Panthers for Mark Parrish, Oleg Kvasha, and the first overall pick in that year's draft. He drafted Rick DiPietro with that pick, and while they are still awaiting DiPietro's breakout in New York, the man who was selected immediately afterwards may score fifty goals this year. That man was Dany Heatley.

However it was 2001 that saw Milbury making his worst trade. He dealt Zdeno Chara, a young defenseman on the upswing of his career, and the second overall pick, which turned out to be Jason Spezza, to the Ottawa Senators for Alexei Yashin. Yashin has since gone on to be ridiculed around the league for his bloated contract, fickle attitude, and lack of production, while Chara has become a perrenial Norris trophy candidate and Spezza is the top-line centre for the best team in the league.

Also in 2001, the day after acquiring Yashin, in fact, Milbury was shuffling his roster again. He dealt promising youngsters Tim Connolly and Taylor Pyatt to Buffalo for Mike Peca. Peca was captain during his tenure on the Island, but never lived up to the billing as a second-line centre, while the Sabres are reaping the benefits of Connolly's abilities during this, his breakout season. Isles' fans can shake their head further at the fact that Peca has since gone on to play a crucial role on the checking line in Edmonton, looking rejuvenated now that his talents are being properly utilised.

Add to Milbury's resume the fact that he gave up on solid NHLers such as Raffi Torres, Eric Brewer, and JP Dumont, getting names like Dmitri Nabokov in return, and one can only wonder what type of lineup the Islanders could be icing now, in 2006. Thus, the question stands: where would the Islanders be without Mad Mike at the helm? While no one can really say for sure, I personally would be willing to venture it would be a hell of a lot higher than eleventh in the Eastern Conference with tee times for April 22 already booked.

Had he not made trades as though the NHL was some sort of fantasy sports league, Milbury could have had a lineup that included Roberto Luongo in goal, Chara and Redden on the points, and the much-feared duo of Jason Spezza and Dany Heatley up front. Guys like Torres, Dumont, and Brewer would have brought their own elements to the Isles, and the team would have unquestionably been a serious contender for the Stanley Cup. However, they are not, and we are all left to tell the tale of Mad Mike and the Terror on Long Island.

The Sports Media: "Spinning" Out of Control

2006-03-31T05:46:00.000-08:00

The media obviously plays a crucial role in professional sports. Teams are covered by writers and reporters from all across the country and the world, as fans clamour for as much news as they can find on their favorite franchises. However, the media is in it for themselves, too. Make no mistake about it, there is almost as much money in properly covering the right franchise as there is in owning it.

But what if that franchise is not doing anything overly worthy of coverage? What is the media machine to do then? Well, that's what I'm here to discuss today.

The media is all about spinning stories to get the most out of them. If you look at the Todd Bertuzzi situation in Vancouver (which inspired me to write this column), you'll see a prime example. When Vancouver was a sinking ship ten games ago, it was all about the horrible play of Bertuzzi and his megastar linemate Markus Naslund. Now that the team is back on the upswing, they're being led by the "rejuvenated" Todd Bertuzzi - whose seven points in his last five games is by no means fantastic, but it sure makes for a good story when you've been painting him as the biggest disappointment in the NHL since October.

To further the situation with Bertuzzi, the media has the Steve Moore excuse. "Oh he's playing terrible because of the stuff with Steve Moore," they'll say. Well, how about no, he's not. If you look at Bertuzzi's production over the past five seasons, he was only over a point-a-game twice - coincidentally during the two best years Markus Naslund has had in the NHL. Before Steve Moore ever entered his life, Bertuzzi was on a pace of .869 points-per-game. This year he's on a pace of .864, which is right about where he was before his two great seasons from 2001-2003. But that doesn't make a good story, and personal struggle does. Ergo, Bertuzzi's production must be down due to the Steve Moore incident, and not because the stats suggest 2001-2003 was an anamoly. Stats are boring, a career ruined by a violent on-ice attack is not.

That's not enough evidence? Look no further than Toronto if you want to see media spin. Mikael Tellqvist has a couple of bad games and all of a sudden there are cries that the goalie of the future must come via free agency - with very little mention of the fact that Tellqvist had been forced to watch a faltering Ed Belfour from the bench all season, with almost no game work to keep himself sharp. Yet when he's thrown into the fire of a playoff race, and does not play well behind a team that is constantly hanging him out to dry, it's entirely his fault? The reality is that it's not, but now the Toronto media has a great story in J.S. Aubin, who has played well in his two starts. If Tellqvist comes back and looks strong before the year is out, the questions of "why didn't he play more this year?" will return, just as they did during Belfour's struggles this season. It's all about what the best way to manipulate a story is, no matter what the cirumstances actually dictate at the time.

Another example is in Calgary, where arguably the best team in the West can't win because they don't have a "number one" centre and Daymond Langkow is a bust. Again, spun in such a fashion that people forget that the team has the best defense corps and goaltending in the league, and also give up the second fewest goals-against per game. Not to mention Langkow's figuring to have his second-best season as an NHLer, a point seldom noted. Yet in the postseason, when Calgary wins games 2-1 and grinds out success with great goaltending and defense, there will be no mention of a lack of scoring, but rather how the team was "built for the playoffs".

The Sens have goaltending woes and an injury bug that won't go away, but have actually played better in 2006 without Hasek between the pipes and with a pile of kids filling in than they did when they had their 'A' lineup. The Habs are fighting for their playoff lives and it's an up-hill battle, despite the fact that they are closer to moving up than they are to moving down. The Oilers "keep getting better players, but never get any better" according to one media outlet, and yet their goals-for is way up this year and they are on pace to surpass their 89-point output of 2003-2004.

Yet you only hear about all the Sens' problems, Montreal's playoff struggle, and the Oilers not living up to their potential. No positives are mentioned up front, because those positives will seem that much more heroic in two weeks time when those teams get hot.

"Sometimes you're flush and sometimes you're bust, and when you're up, it's never as good as it seems, and when you're down, you never think you'll be up again, but life goes on," said Fred Jung to his son George in the film Blow. He was talking about going bankrupt in that particular instance, but his words are very much applicable to life in the sports media. When a team is flush, it's never as good as it seems, but the media is going to do everything it can to make it seem pretty great. When a team is bust, those same guys in the media are going to make it seem like no team has ever played so bad before. It's all in the name of a "good story", be it the one planned to go to the presses on that day, or one to be penned in a month's time when a team's fortunes have changed. And make no mistake about it, the pen is the mightiest tool in the industry.

The Fabulous First-Years of the NHL

2006-03-24T04:49:00.000-08:00

This week I got thinking about rookies in the NHL. Why right here on nhltraderumours.com, the banner at the top of the page is of two super-rookies.

I got thinking about rookies because most hockey minds have been bamboozled by all the stud first-year talents out there, and a lot of said minds are not in the right place right when it comes to ranking them. So I've decided to rank the top five rookies in the NHL this season myself, taking into account the following (in no particular order of importance):

a) Players' value to his team
b) Caliber of team player plays on
c) Players' impact on the league
d) Players' position (and difficulty thereof)
e) Players' potential
f) Players' current overall ability

Let's take a look and see who came in where (counted down in reverse order...ooo the anticipation).

5. Andrej Meszaros, D, Ottawa Senators - Meszaros is unquestionably the most underrated rookie in this year's crop. The guy is an exceptional talent who has actually put up better numbers at the NHL level than he did in junior (a product of being on a great offensive hockey club, but impressive nonetheless). He's incredibly smart both with and without the puck, and bumped highly-touted defensive prospect Anton Volchenkov from the Sens' top-four, so Ottawa has to think pretty highly of him. Judging by the year he's having, that high opinion is completely justified.

4. Sidney Crosby, C, Pittsburgh Penguins - Crosby is a very good hockey player playing on a very bad team. He sees the ice better than most guys twice his age, and has made his young career to date by making his untalented teammates look far better than they actually are. However there are serious off-ice issues with Crosby concerning his maturity and his connection with his teammates - something certainly hindered by his being given an 'A' as an unproven rookie. There is no denying that he's going to be one of hockey's best players in ten years, in fact he's made great strides towards that level in his freshman campaign, but hype and a bunch of points have made people think he's farther along in his development than he actually is.

3. Dion Phaneuf, D, Calgary Flames - Phaneuf is a hockey player's hockey player. He can score, pass, hit, fight, and defend, and he does it all with the grace and guile of a man who's played defense in the NHL for fifteen years. He absolutely eats powerplay time on a club that sorely needs someone to do just that, and produces more offense than many of the club's forwards. Besides Miikka Kiprusoff, Dion Phaneuf might well be the Flames' MVP, and that's not bad for a guy who can't legally have a beer when the team goes on a roadtrip to the US.

2. Henrik Lundqvist, G, New York Rangers - The Rangers' puckstopping sensation has quietly had the best season of any goalie in the NHL, all things considered. He came to camp as a question mark, then proceeded to take the starting job from Kevin Weekes and turn the whole league on end. Lundqvist has already struck Olympic gold this season, proving he can win the big game, and is now looking to barnstorm the playoffs for a chance to sip from Lord Stanley's mug. While his Czech mates have been largely credited with the Rangers' resurgence, the fact that this guy has made the hardest position in hockey look like a walk in the park in his first season should garner some serious Calder consideration, and maybe a sniff at the Vezina too.

1. Alexander Ovechkin, LW, Washington Capitals - I ask you one question: who is better than this guy right now? You would find some answers out there, yes, but those answers could be counted on one hand. Ovechkin is a human highlight reel, scoring goals as if the NHL were a beer league. He has an incredible nose for the net, and is actually a surprisingly capable defensive forward - when he decides to play in his own end, which is somewhat rare. He has thrown several thunderous bodychecks this season, including a memorable filling of Colin White earlier in the year and a bigtime collision with Zdeno Chara, of which he got the better. When a team takes a player first overall in the draft, this is what they are dreaming of. Expect Ovechkin to score seventy goals in a season more than once, and probably by his twenty-fifth birthday.

And that's how the NHL rookies break down this season. Honorable mention goes to Marek Svatos, who might have been on there if he wasn't hurt, Brad Boyes, who is quietly having an exceptional year for the Bruins, and Thomas Vanek, who was sixth on my ballot with an overly productive campaign for the Sabres. Thanks for reading, I'll be back next Friday.

Last Stop for the E-Train?

2006-03-17T04:42:00.000-08:00

I've been thinking about this column for a few weeks now, since Eric Lindros reinjured his wrist and saw his dream season as a Toronto Maple Leaf come to a pathetic end after a heroic beginning. It was originally going to be a portion of an "End to End", but I decided that its scope was too large and it deserved its own spotlight.

Simply put, in 1991, Eric Lindros was drafted to be Superman and Mark Messier's love child. The Nordiques thought they had themselves a franchise player with freakish size, strength and speed, as well as an ability to fill the net and set up teammates with ease. Add a vicious mean streak, and Eric Lindros might well have been the best thing hockey had ever seen - all before he was twenty.

By the time Lindros broke into the NHL with the Flyers, it looked like that hype could actually be justified. He was making things look easy, putting on some legendary performances between John LeClair and Mikael Renberg on Philly's 'Legion of Doom' line, captaining the storied franchise in the process.

Then the concussions started, and they didn't stop. Repeatedly flattened because of his penchant for watching his feet while skating, the E-Train's career was derailed, with arguably the most severe shot coming from Scott Stevens in 2001. After years of being the biggest kid on the playground, Lindros was not ready to change the style of game that saw him with so much success all through junior and early in his pro career - except now people weren't bouncing off of him when he had his head down, they were bouncing him out of games.

So Lindros, ever the diplomat, demanded the Flyers move him, to a short list of teams of his choice, no less.

The high-rolling, high-spending Rangers took a chance on the damaged goods, and it certainly didn't pay off. Lindros was lethargic in his first year in New York, on most nights playing without the edge he'd harboured for ten years and looking like a kid who just watched his dog run away.

Until 2003/04.

Then, out of nowhere, the old Eric Lindros came back with a passion that saw him become a headdy playmaker instead of an brutish power forward. Although, the physical part of his game was not at all lost, it just became more sensibly utilised alongside the other areas of the game he was showcasing. In one instance, Lindros went toe-to-toe with Joe Thornton, and actually dropped the then-Bruins' captain with a stiff left hand. He had 32 points in 39 games before an unfortunate incident put this new Lindros back in an old place - the pressbox.

Lindros, head down, meet Jason Doig, shoulder up. Season over.

After years of head trouble, Lindros saw his last season as a Ranger cut short when Doig's (completely clean) hit busted up Eric's shoulder, proving that other parts of the Lindros anatomy were weak as well. However this, and the lockout, freed him to pursue his boyhood dream of becoming a Toronto Maple Leaf. So that's what he did.

The cap-strapped Leafs took a chance on the big centreman, and he paid off huge when Mats Sundin went down early in the year. Lindros may honestly never have looked so involved in a hockey game as he did when his hometown team needed him, as he put up 22 points in 30 games - not even a full game of which was with Sundin in the lineup, and most of which was spent between Chad Kilger and Tie Domi. But with the injury to his wrist, and another Lindros season cut in half by a nagging injury that exceeds its own threshold of seriousness, the Big E's career is in a familiar place - limbo. No one knows what he will do, and no team really knows what they'll do about him.

However I can shed some light on it by telling you that Eric Lindros has attempted to come back from far worse than this most recent setback, so he'll certainly be back again. For my money, the Leafs will re-sign him to a similar deal because he looked so good in blue and white, but if it's not Toronto I think you'll see a massive #88 playing alongside an incredible #8 in Washington.

The risk always seems to be worth the reward for teams when it comes to Eric Lindros. The potential for this year to be the year he comes back is just too tempting for a GM not to throw a million bucks at him to see if it sticks. But you can't help wondering every time if this is the last stop for the E-Train, regardless of what history or better sense may tell you.

For the guy sitting here writing this, 2005/06 wasn't the last stop for the E-Train...but maybe it should have been.

The Deadline: A Critique

2006-03-10T05:43:00.000-08:00

Greetings all.

As of now it looks like my posts will be on Fridays, for anyone interested. It's the only time that I really have in my schedule, so for most who may be reading they can check out my blog early on Friday and there should be something new. With that point made, let's get into the meat of it for today.

Sean Brown got traded. Todd Simpson got traded. Yannick Lehoux got traded. All of this was deemed important breaking news.

It was trade deadline day in the NHL yesterday, and that means even the most insignificant roster moves got a bare minimum of ten minutes live TV time, and then countless hours of repeat time. Sure it was fun to watch an all-day marathon of coverage with some of our favorite hockey personalities in the mix, but at the end of the day did we need thirteen hours in a row of coverage? Couldn't the recap on SportsCentre or Score Tonight do the job?

As I mentioned last week, I think the deadline is far more hype than substance. There were only two trades of significance (three if you count the Roloson deal), yet networks were breaking news like they had a lead on the whereabouts of Osama Bin Laden. The tale was truly told in Phoenix, where a season's worth of trades were made without one significant alteration to the starting lineup.

I was happy that there were blockbusters out there though, particularly the Theodore trade, which I don't think anyone really thought would happen, no matter how many rumour mills you read. It was just hard to picture the Habs moving him, yet here we are. The Samsonov trade was also a nice capper to the deadline, and while I don't personally feel it's the massive super-trade many networks are suggesting it is, it was a pretty big move - especially in comparison to some of the other ones out there.

Recchi was interesting if a little unsurprising, ditto for Roloson. The Leafs' acquisition of Luke Richardson was a nice touch, but seeing Ken Klee go quickly made up for it. Willie Mitchell and Brendan Witt finally got moved, and with impressive return at that.

Overall I'll admit I was wrong - there was a firestorm of action and I did not anticipate it. However there is absolutely no excitement in watching draft picks or minor-league talent exchanged, so on that front I will say that I am pretty disappointed.

I give the deadline a C+...good, not great. They went for quantity, not quality, and as a result there were many trade junkies who were unimpressed by 3PM EST.

Check 'End to End' at Spector's Hockey on Monday for a more indepth look at the deadline, which will include a 'Good, Bad, and Ugly' for Deadline 2006.

For now I'm off, thanks for reading.

Much ado about nothing?

2006-03-03T05:38:00.000-08:00

Welcome to my first post here at nhltraderumours.com. Those of you who have followed me here from spectorshockey.net, or possibly even from fogdevils.com, are very likely familiar with how I operate. For those of you who are new to my manner of operation, I try to make sure that I post my articles on the same day every week, assuring people know when a new article will be posted. As of now I'm not completely certain what day of the week I'll be posting on here, what with work, school, and other hockey commitments, but once I figure out a time in my schedule I'll be as consistent as I can with posts. With that said, let's dive right in.

I hate to be a Negative Nelly over here (especially given I have never written anything on this site before, and some of you are probably reading my work for the first time), and I promise that it won't happen every week, however I find deadline day to be somewhat of a disappointment every year. It seems to me that there are two or three trades that are worth noting - maybe one of which is worth the hype it receives - and then a bunch of absolutely awful hockey players are shuffled about in a continuation of their journeyman NHL careers.

Just look back at some classic Toronto Maple Leafs' deadline days, for example. In the past few years we have seen Leaf Nation embrace Doug Gilmour, Phil Housley, and Owen Nolan, at or near the deadline - all of whom combined to contribute half as much as I did myself to any Leaf playoff run. These deals were overexposed and portrayed by media and fans alike to be exactly what the Leafs needed to capture Lord Stanley, yet here we are in 2006 discussing the likelihood of a thirty-nine year Cup drought in TO.

I think alot of it stems from the fact that, here in Canada particularly, there will be a bare minimum of three television networks providing all-day coverage of the trade deadline. I'm not really complaining, because I think Steve Ludzik is one of the best hockey analysts around and I could (and probably will) listen to his stories all day, but I'd have to question devoting a full day to the NHL trade deadline. Add to that fact that there are countless websites and sports radio stations with similar intentions of all-day coverage, and it just gets watered down that much more.

I'm not on my high-horse over here, in fact I'm as guilty as anyone. I'll be glued to the coverage of the deadline, very likely by the sacrifice of my history class, watching the rumour-mongering on all the main Canadian sports networks. But I think when you see Bob McKenzie jump out of his chair because Denis Gauthier got moved for a third-rounder, you'll understand my disappointment in the whole production.

Here's hoping the deadline is eventful, and that some big names get moved. This is the first deadline in the history of the 'New NHL,' so I guess no one really knows what to expect. In my own opinion, I honestly don't think it will be grossly less busy than it has been in the past, but I have a suspicion that those living with the hope for multiple blockbusters could be sorely, sorely disappointed. All the same, when the dust settles next Thursday, I'm just hoping it won't be another instance of 'much ado about nothing' in the NHL.